Here in the UK we are living in complex times. Last month we voted to leave the EU; it turns out if being in the EU was complicated, leaving is the definition of complexity.
In the hours following the vote there was profound shock, particularly amongst those of us that voted remain. Certainly I had never imagined this result, though neither perhaps had many that voted leave. The post-mortems are mounting and if no one saw it happening, everyone can now explain why it did. Duncan Green, on his ‘Poverty to Power’ Oxfam blog, offers a great summary of contributing factors and avoids any sort of simplistic explanation. For my own reflections (once past the shock and anger), I try looking through the lens of ‘complex adaptive systems’. These are systems that, as Wasafiri, we seek out to work in, and of course unsurprisingly, find that we also live in. One of the clues to understanding such systems is to look for power; where it moves, where it pools, where it stagnates: “Identifying types of power and where they are located is an essential factor in understanding complex social systems” (1)
Well, in the EU referendum many of us saw power in all the normal places; with the business leaders, with the economists, with the analysts of political and economic impact, with our political leaders. Yet BREXIT was voted for in large numbers by those that live outside of London, by working class voters, by older voters, and above all by people who have, politically and economically, been marginalised for a long time; and it turns out however marginalised individually, collectively they held a power that few truly appreciated, at least for this vote.
And now, from the press to the school playground when I pick up my kids, our conversations are dominated by the what ifs, the maybes and the impossible to knows. What we can know is that we are part of a complex adaptive system; one that right now we are trying to change. Like all complex adaptive systems the issues are emerging and changing; they are too complex for any one person or institution to fully understand; and no one body can control, determine or even ‘lead’, let alone predict, exactly what will happen.
So what might BREXIT mean for the UK’s international aid programme? On paper, the value of our aid budget has just dropped by about $1.4 billion(2). This is due to the drop in the value of the pound and the corresponding drop in the value of our aid budget. But in the coming months, as the pound (hopefully) strengthens, or (terrifyingly) drops further, this number will prove to be what it is – a projection. More significantly, though still off somewhere in a post UK Europe, is that the UK contributes about 2 billion Euros to the EU aid budget – though whether this money ‘disappears’ from international aid, or appears in a different form is, as yet, unknowable. Beyond the money there is also the issue of influence. We already see, in many of the countries in Africa where we work, that the UK government has no monopoly on political influence; we compete for space with other national governments, with the boom in Chinese trade and with regional agendas and bodies. As we leave the EU and cease to be part of that substantial infrastructure of delegations, funding and political access, we may have more freedom to ‘sing our own tune’ but we will be singing it on our own, and not as part of a choir of 27 states.
However, as much as many of us didn’t want or vote for BREXIT, and however much we believe it is wrong for our country, we now have it. We will leave the EU. And we need to work out how to do it well. Doing it well means that the process as well as the outcome matter; and that they are actually one and the same. It means working with the emergent nature of the issues; it means engaging across all the stakeholders – those in our country and beyond – however contradictory their views, needs and experiences; it means not pretending that any one person or institution can control, predict or, however brilliant they are, ‘save’ the process. It means recognising that we are living in a complex adaptive system and we had better not underestimate the consequences.
References
(1)
http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/Articles/Connecting-the-dots
(2)
p://www.humanosphere.org/opinion/2016/06/brexit-causes-value-of-u-k-foreign-aid-to-drop-by-1-4-billion/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-36618843
We are excited this week to welcome Candida to the Wasafiri team. She will be based in East Africa and working as our new Operations & Commercial Manager, helping us to grow the organisation and look after the delivery of much of our work in the region. Candida is a chemical engineer by training and has applied her skills to big corporates in the USA and start-up social enterprises in Kenya and India; and somewhere in between all that has found the time to compete in Ironman triathlons. She brings to Wasafiri a spirit of adventure, well honed professional skills and a love of excel spreadsheets.
In August in Kenya we got together with our friends and clients to have some fun building our community and sharing what we have learnt about how to deliver change in Africa. Here is snapshot www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEqpO1b8utI of what we got up to -For the more serious stuff without all the singing and dancing look out for the Insights Report that we will be publishing soon.
We are delighted to welcome Nada Abshir as a new Consultant in our Conflict and Stability Practice. Nada is a specialist project manager with over a decade of experience working amidst complex political and development challenges in Africa and Asia. She is an expert in the areas of tackling conflict, strengthening stability and building effective institutions, with core skills in stakeholder engagement, advocacy, operational planning, communications and programme management.
Nada holds a BA in Politics and an MA in International affairs; and is a multi-lingual, culturally-sensitive, adaptable relationship builder, who has worked with organisations such as the UN, EC, USAID and US State Department.
Nada explains: “I have had the opportunity to engage this work from different vantage points; and have covered a range of issues including advocacy, human rights, child protection and public health research. The common thread in my work has been to support organisations to identify opportunities and challenges; and exploring with them how to create positive change from these processes.”
Hamish Wilson, Wasafiri Director and Principal Consultant, comments: “Nada brings a wealth of experience to our East Africa based team. Her understanding of how to deliver real change for people affected by conflict is deepened by her being Somali and she has worked extensively across the region. Not only that, she is a real professional and a delight to work with!”
Read more about Nada Abshir and download her CV on her page in Our People.
If you are interested in working with or for Wasafiri Consulting please contact our Head of Development, Dr Kate Simpson, on [email protected]
We welcome Marcel van Driel to Wasafiri as a new Consultant in Organisational Development for the Public Sector. Of Dutch origin and based in Lusaka, Zambia, Marcel is a specialist in the practice areas of agriculture, effective institutions and governance, with core skills in project design and management, strategic planning, monitoring, evaluation and workshop facilitation.
Marcel has worked as an advisor for Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), seconded to the Local Government Association of Zambia (LGAZ); and the Government Service for Land and Water Management of the Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture, Nature Development and Food Quality (DLG).
He explains: “After obtaining a degree in Landscape Engineering, I worked for 7 years as project manager for land use and development. I worked on a feasibility and compliance study in Mali and was a planning advisor in Malawi. My work in Africa has made me knowledgeable about decentralisation and local governance – as well as allowing me to fulfill my passions for African nature and nature photography.”
Ian Randall, Wasafiri Executive Director and Principle Consultant, comments: “Marcel will be marvellous at helping African Governments with effective planning and the capacity to deliver real and sustainable results for their citizens.”
Read more about Marcel van Driel and download his CV on his page in Our People.
If you are interested in working with or for Wasafiri Consulting please contact our Head of Development, Dr Kate Simpson, on [email protected]
Photo copyright Marcel van Driel.
What a magical three days of learning , sharing and talking round the camp fire! We have just concluded our annual Wasafiri retreat, which brought together a diverse group of Wasafiri consultants, clients, friends and partners, all of whom are working to deliver change in Africa. Over these three days we shared challenges and successes and together identified some of the key ingredients for creating successful change; and most importantly, how to deliver change in Africa.
The power and the magic were in the people who came. We had participants from a wide range of contexts, countries and sectors, including private sector, government, not for profits and civil society. All of who are African or Africa-based and passionate about the possibilities, opportunities and challenges that face Africa today. Together we shared and listened to stories of delivering change;
- at a continental scale through Grow Africa;
- of the BRACED initiative to build climate change resilience and what it really takes to create effective, multi agency partnerships that can work well together;
- how to strengthen government institutions;
- and the very real and practical challenges of working in fragile, conflict-affected countries such as Somalia.
And on top of all that we even managed a little singing and dancing to aid all the thinking!
From all this diversity emerged some strong and surprising commonalities about the ingredients for delivering successful change. Watch out for the forthcoming ‘Wasafiri Briefing’, which will offer a summary of the lessons we have learnt over the last year around what it takes to create successful change.
A big thank you to all those who came – I leave inspired about the possibilities and with a greater understanding of what it takes to deliver successful change in Africa.
