Beyond planning – the search for complex solutions

by Hamish Wilson/

The past month has been, in a word, complex.

I’ve found myself in London helping Google grapple with emerging markets, in Somalia with the British Government wrestling with ongoing conflict and then back to Nairobi overseeing projects tackling issues of community security and extremism. And in amongst it all, I’ve become preoccupied with the search to understand these problems better and to figure out how meaningful change can happen; which has brought me to thinking more and more about the concept of ‘complexity’ and how it cuts across all the work we do.

In recent years there has been a lot of talk of concepts such as Systems Thinking, Complexity and Complex Problems. Such thinking proposes that many of the challenges we currently face (whether as an organisation or as a global community), go far beyond being merely ‘complicated’; and that we need entirely new ways of thinking and acting if we are to make change happen.

 Complexity thinkers argue that conventional approaches to problems assume that, however big or nasty an issue is, with enough clever thinking from enough experts, with enough forecasts and models and spreadsheets, we can plan our way to a clever solution – and we can build a logical framework to prove it. In essence, this ‘theory of change’ is a theory of comprehensive planning. (It’s worth knowing the UK’s Department for International Development has pioneered this approach for global development problems).

Don’t get me wrong, this sort of approach has worked well for all sorts of issues – from building hospitals, to putting humans on the moon.

But what about those situations when we don’t even understand the nature of the problem itself? When things are so volatile that the consequences can’t be calculated, or it’s impossible to fully understand what’s going on? Or when the future we desire is difficult to predict or agree on?

These are complex issues. And as Einstein once (apparently) said: ‘We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.’ So it seems our usual ways of thinking won’t help us figure out the kind of complex solutions we need.

Examples include the alarming issue of violent extremism spreading across the Horn of Africa, where we don’t understand the root causes, or the consequences of intervening. Or the problem of a multinational extractives business trying to operate amongst fragile local communities, where it’s difficult to identify myriad interests and agendas. Or climate change, where we don’t really understand what is happening, why, or the future it will bring.

These are all issues we at Wasafiri are helping our clients grapple with. And they can’t be tackled merely with very good planning.

Rather, we need to think in different ways – systemic ways. We must approach such issues not with the metaphor of a machine that can be built and mended and adjusted, but as a complex living system, where there are many different things going on at the same time, connected in ways we may not see and which adapt and evolve constantly.

So my search for the threads which bind our work is helping me realise the need to stop looking for universal, simple solutions, to get rid of the mindset of linear planning and abandon the search for best practice from what has gone before.

But this journey is only just beginning. Over the coming months we will be deepening our exploration of complexity and how to bring it to the complex problems faced by our clients and partners. As we go along we will share our thinking, our questions and, no doubt, our uncertainties.

 We’d love your thoughts and questions, so please drop us a line if there is a question you would like us to explore, or a thought, experience or challenge you’d like to share.

The Global Risks Report – complex problems need complex solutions

by Hamish Wilson/

Our world is insufficiently prepared for an increasingly complex risk environment. This stirring call to arms was recently issued by the World Economic Forum in its Global Risks Report.

The Forum’s study of the planet’s most pressing problems reveals that the underlying nature of the risk is changing. The pace of political, economic, social, environmental and technological change is unprecedented. As never before, we are faced with risks that are increasingly complex, unpredictable and volatile.

The report draws particular attention to a number of concerns that affect us all:

  • Fragile societies under increasing pressure from rising unemployment and inequality;
  • Growing concerns over conflict, in a new era of strategic competition among global powers;
  • A potentially false sense of optimism over the global economic recovery; and
  • The rising dangers of climate change, environmental degradation and resource scarcity.

Yet it is when the interconnections between these risks are mapped, that we begin to understand just how complex an environment we face.

WEF Risks Connections

(Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report)

In Africa, this landscape is posing extraordinary challenges for decision makers at all levels. The risks of climate and economic shocks, the fear of instability and extremism are rising. How do we prepare for and build resilience against such risks? How do we mitigate the consequences? How do we avoid collateral damage and the unintended fallout?

Complex risks transcend borders, politics and spheres of influence. And they require complex solutions. Conventional thinking won’t work. New approaches are required, new collaborations across countries and industries, which forge new partnerships to think and act differently.

Click here to view the full report Global Risks Report

 

A playlist on complexity and how not to make things simple

by Kate Simpson/

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” H.L. Mencken

At Wasafiri we are interested in how you make change happen in complex systems. So far we have yet to find any simple answers, but we have found a lot of complex ones. So for this play list, I have brought together an odd selection of people who argue that we need to embrace complexity, confusion and ambiguity in our thinking and give up any idea that we understand what is going on. For, if we’re going to find solutions to some of the complex problems we currently face – be they the productivity of agricultural systems across Africa, climate change or long term conflicts – then we will need to be able to think and work within the complexity we live.

Eric Berlow – Gives us a surprisingly simple (well sort of) summary of complexity and opportunities for drawing out important insights (and there are some reassuringly complex graphics)

In this talk Tim Harford, an economist and journalist, connects the dots between the second world war, Marmite, manufacturing detergent and a Japanese mathematician, to argue for the importance of trial and error and that we give up ‘having the answer’ (he also shows that economists aren’t quite as funny as they think they are!).

 

https://www.ted.com/talks/tim_harford

 

Moaning about PowerPoint must be one of the most shared human activities. This article argues that it is not just boredom that PowerPoint risks imposing on us but, potentially, it erodes our very ability to think! A little extreme perhaps, but still a call to avoid the overly rigid application of bullet points and logic of simple cause and effect.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/23/powerpoint-thought-students-bullet-points-information

 

And if you actually want something that gives an overview of (and a lot of links to more info on) complexity science, then here is a more serious article.

http://www.collaborationforimpact.com/may-2015-working-in-complexity/

 

Part of the reason that complexity is so hard and simplicity so appealing, is to do with the way our brains work and the ways we like to think. Daniel Kahneman has won the Noble Prize for basically telling us that we don’t know what we are doing, or why we do it. In this short radio interview he shows how much context informs our thinking and the many ways we avoid ambiguity. Unfortunately, complexity is full of ambiguities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0174gm2#play

 

 

The African revolution coming to a market near you!

by Kate Simpson/

Africa is open for business! Or so we have been told. There is enthusiasm from investors; there are entrepreneurs with great (and some terrible) ideas; and there are businesses to be found all over the continent. Yet the flow of capital and investment into Africa are still slow. There are undoubtedly lots of reasons for this, but the question is: what can be done to encourage more catalytic investment in Africa and more successful African entrepreneurs?

As with all complex problems, the solutions are also complex and vary across the continent. For example, while Somalia is famous for its entrepreneurial and business-minded people, the chronic insecurity makes it a very hard place to invest. Meanwhile Nigeria has one of the biggest domestic markets on the continent and its $800 million ‘Nollywood’ film industry produces around 50 movies a week, making it second only to Hollywood (even bigger than ‘Bollywood’ on a per capita basis); yet the country is hampered by a reputation for corruption. Or in Kenya, where there are some fantastic, innovative businesses emerging (watch ‘mobile money’ take over the world and know it all began in Kenya); but the challenges of setting up a business and the political climate mean any investor will need a strong stomach for bureaucracy.

Here in Rwanda, there is a great deal of attention on and energy around entrepreneurial development and, indeed, the subject is now on the national curriculum for secondary school students. So I caught up for breakfast with Sara Leedom and Julienne Oyler, founders of African Entrepreneur Collective, to talk entrepreneurs, development, investment and the value of cows. Its pilot company, of Inkomoko Business Development, (which means ‘origin’ in Kyinrwanda) has been working in Rwanda since 2012 and, with a local team of eight and a rolling supply of international mentors, has supported over 170 businesses.

Kate: What is it that inspired you to get involved in supporting entrepreneurs here in Rwanda?

Sara & Julienne: For us it is all about jobs. Across the continent there is a real need to generate a huge growth in employment. In general, African economies need to grow 8-10% per year just to keep up with the growing labour market population and maintain current levels of unemployment. If you want to reduce unemployment, then even more growth is needed; and this growth has to come from the private sector. So, across the continent, there is a need for businesses that can set up and grow to create new jobs. For us at Inkomoko, it is all about supporting the entrepreneurs to build and grow the businesses that will create these jobs.

As for starting in Rwanda, well we actually explored a number of countries and there are a few things that make Rwanda a great place for entrepreneurs and investors. For a start, structurally, Rwanda is really well set up for entrepreneurs. It is easy to open a business; it is politically stable; there are efficient systems around tax and employment; and so on. Also, politically, there is a real encouragement for entrepreneurs with things like subsidised training and support for people to start businesses. In fact it’s the only place we have worked where starting a business is seen as ‘patriotic’. So while in the USA or UK, your average entrepreneur is often quite individualistic and there is a real emphasis on personal success, here in Rwanda, being an entrepreneur is much more about collective effort and about contributing to your community and country.

There are challenges too – it is a small country and so any successful business really needs to be looking beyond national markets. Also, outside of Kigali, infrastructure such as Internet is more limited; and, culturally, there can be a more cautious, less ‘risk’ taking, approach than you traditionally see in entrepreneurs in the West.

 

Kate: I feel like I read and hear a lot of enthusiasm at the international level for investment in Africa. Yet on the ground and certainly here in Rwanda, it seems that enthusiasm isn’t quite translating into actual investments. What’s your perspective on the challenges entrepreneurs here face?

Sara & Julienne: Matching investors and business is not simple. While it is easy to talk about and get investors excited about ideas, actually getting capital into businesses is much harder. Often investors, particularly those from mature markets in the West, have unrealistic expectations about what it will be like investing in an African business. They don’t necessarily know what it means to invest in, say, an agricultural business in an emerging economy and they have unrealistic expectations about levels of mechanism, or the ways labour will be organised, or how a business will plan and report on activities. Interestingly, what we are increasingly seeing is ‘South – South’ investment, particularly from Indian investors. They often have a better understanding of how markets and supply chains work in an emerging economy and are more able to understand the risks and recognise the opportunities. I think we will see increasing flows of investment into Africa from various parts of Asia.

The other challenge is in the types of businesses that international investors are drawn to. There can be an over enthusiasm for what are seen as ‘innovative’ ideas in, for example, technology business. While tech businesses are important, especially here in Rwanda, they are not going to be the engine of large employment. In a country where 80% of the population is involved in agriculture, the business opportunities and types of business that are likely to create significant numbers of jobs, are in agriculture and, particularly, in processing. For example, at the moment we are supporting a great business focused on avocado oil and we are also trying to work out how to structure financing for some cows for a diary business. But it can be a challenge to get investors, who are new to agriculture, to really explore these sorts of businesses.

 

What next for Inkomoko?

Sara & Julienne: At Inkomoko, we are committed to expanding our work in Rwanda. Everyday we are seeing local businesses with tremendous potential and opportunity, and we want to continue to provide the support and resources necessary to see these grow.

For African Entrepreneur Collective, we want to see take our learnings from Rwanda and move to new geographies. We want to explore working with partners in other countries across the continent, to see how we can grow the model we have developed here, to support more businesses, in more countries, to grow and create more jobs. I think what we have found here is the importance of working with entrepreneurs in a very tailored, individual way. All their businesses are different and so are their challenges; and while we have developed a really good training curriculum for business skills, helping entrepreneurs really scale up their business is about supporting them at all stages.

 

 

For more interesting information check out:

www.AfricanEntrepreneurCollective.org

http://inkomoko.com/

https://www.emergingcrowd.com/

www.growafrica.com

Wasafiri Change Lab: – Building partnerships in conflicted affected regions

by Kate Simpson/

On Monday June 8th we are hosting our first Change Lab in Nairobi. This free event will be held at Zen Garden, Spring Valley from 6-8pm.

The Wasafiri Change Lab will use real world case-studies, facilitated dialogue and peer-to-peer problem solving to help you develop your organisation’s approach to building effective partnerships in conflict affected regions. The Change Lab will give you a structured approach to exploring challenges and creating solutions in new ways, with new perspectives and new people.

The session will be lively, interactive and discussion based. Please bring to the Lab a real challenge you are working on and come ready to talk, listen, explore and collaborate.

A drink & bitings will be included so please RSVP to [email protected]  to make sure we get enough food! – We look forward to seeing you there.

PLAYLIST: Digested TED talks on delivering change in Africa

by Kate Simpson/

No time to watch all those interesting TED talks? Well we’ve watched (some) of them and here is our 1 minute summary of three of the most interesting and recent with something to say on change in Africa.

For Africa it is all about jobs, leaders and building strong institutions. In countries with weak institution you need good leaders – who can build the strong institutions to protect the country from bad leaders. And Africa needs jobs, lots of jobs – by 2030 the continent will have a bigger workforce than China and that means a  924 million people. Ultimately these jobs need to come predominantly from the private sector and so you need entrepreneurs – and lots of them. Fred is hoping that the African Leadership Academy and the African Leadership Network will be a part of creating these leaders and entrepreneurs that the continent needs.

Who are the biggest senders of money to developing world countries? Migrants are. Remittance payments from international migrants amount to  413 Billion US Dollars per year, or three times as much as ALL the development aid money given by governments. This money tends to move in small amounts and go directly to poor people – it has a direct, measurable, positive impact on development indicators such as birth weight, school attendance and GDP. Yet there are significant barriers and costs to getting this money moving. Diip Ratha’s call for action is to make this money easier and cheaper to send – and he has a plan for donors, social entrprenures and businesses alike on just how to do that.

 

Not the hopeless but the hopeful continent – Charles Robertson argues  (with some stats and some economist talk) that, as a continent, things in Africa are just getting better and  better.  From economic growth, to the quality of leadership, to reduced corruption, increased education levels and even reduced malaria, he paints a positive and optimistic picture of Africa and calls for the 21st Century to be the century of Africa. While his talk is sweeping and generalist – and his argument disguises huge variety and variation across the continent – it’s still a welcome and useful antidote to the stories of negativity that often dominate talk of Africa.

And if all that is a bit too serious, here is a satirical look at a particular African Stereotype. This one is much better to watch than to read about (and its only 3 mins long).

http://www.ted.com/watch/ads-worth-spreading/lets-save-africa

 

Interested in practical insights on how to deliver change in Africa?

by Kate Simpson/

Download Change Perspectives – Wasafiri Insights 2014 For  some practical tips and ingredients on how to deliver change.

In the last year Wasafiri consultants have worked across Africa delivering change in diverse settings and on diverse projects. Working with private, government and NGO clients and across the continent we have tried, succeeded, failed and learnt new lessons about how to deliver change in Africa. ‘Change Perspectives’ is our new short report that shares  some of the practical insights we have gained.

Change Lab Rwanda: how to create public private sector collaborations?

by Kate Simpson/

What do a hotel developer, a community arts innovator, investment manager, a diplomat, several entrepreneurs and a lot of clever, interesting people have in common? They are all part of delivering change in Africa, all interested in creating public private sector collaborations and all came to our first ever Change Lab in Rwanda.

Thank you to all who came it was a lovely evening of interesting people, from diverse backgrounds and organisations exploring, sharing and learning about how the private and public sector can collaborate to deliver change in Africa. We will be doing another change lab here in Rwanda in the new year and bringing it to Nairobi too  – so let us know what topic would you like to see the next lab focus on?

Rwandan statistics lifted from 10th to 2nd-best in sub-Saharan Africa

by Hamish Wilson/

In 2011, the World Bank had ranked Rwanda’s statistical capacity as 10th in sub-Saharan Africa. By 2012, the country had jumped to being second only to Mauritius. The intervening year saw Wasafiri embedded within the National Institute of Statistics to manage a change programme that would transform Rwanda’s capacity to manage statistics.

Monitoring a country’s development progress requires a variety of socio-economic data. Until 2005, this was collected in Rwanda by several institutions under different government ministries. The National Institute of Statistics (NISR) was then created to establish a more integrated approach, with a UNDP-managed basket fund set up to support its implementation.

However, NISR performance fell short of stakeholder expectations due to a number of shortcomings, including poor budget execution, no release calendar for producing quality data, inadequate coordination of statistical activities, and limited dissemination of statistics.

In 2010, the Institute launched its National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), complete with a now NISR-managed basket fund for implementing the 5-year plan. This posed a question of how a young institution with limited management capacity and only 50% of staff in post, could effectively raise and manage around US$80 million where the better-resourced UNDP had not succeeded?
Rwanda-National-Agriculture-Survey

One of Wasafiri’s Principal Consultant’s, Liberal Seburikoko, was embedded in to NISR and led the transformative change required to ensure the plan’s successful implementation.

Our starting point was to hold one-to-one consultations with all key internal and external stakeholders to assess the prevailing situation, whilst identifying opportunities for forging authentic partnerships. We then embarked on a clear systemic change agenda, focusing from the outset on empowering identified champions of change to drive the process.

Throughout our engagement, we focused on shaping new behaviours at all levels (e.g. more disciplined budgeting and planning, and improved accountability and delegation), with flexibility and adaptability also encouraged within the NISR and among donors. Finally, we developed management tools and frameworks to transition from capacity enhancement to an enduring legacy of actionable mechanisms.

The outcome has been extremely rewarding, with the NISR now perceived as an institutional role model both locally and abroad, drawing positive assessments from auditors and stakeholders alike, and securing additional resources from newly-interested non-traditional sources. The NISR is now on course to breaking yet another record, by releasing its 2012 Census results six months ahead of schedule.